Gold and Silver Navigate Rising Yields, Strong China Demand and Falling COMEX Inventories

• Gold and silver ended the week under pressure, with silver closing essentially flat at $64.29 per oz, while gold slipped to approximately $4,285 per oz. The gold-to-silver ratio finished near 66.
• Rising bond yields remain a major macroeconomic theme, with CNBC’s Rick Santelli highlighting an unusually sharp 18-basis-point single-session rise in the 5-year Treasury yield. Higher borrowing costs are becoming increasingly important as global debt approaches $350 trillion.
• U.S. government interest expenses are climbing rapidly, with annual interest payments already exceeding $1 trillion. The report notes that if 5-year Treasury yields remain elevated, annual debt-service costs could move toward $2 trillion within the next several years.
• Higher rates continue to squeeze U.S. households, with 30-year mortgage rates approaching 7.5%. The report estimates that financing a median-priced home now carries nearly $1,200 more in monthly interest costs compared with the beginning of the decade.
• China's gold demand remains a major force in the physical market. Based on imports through roughly two-thirds of the year, China is reportedly on pace to import more than 1,500 metric tons of gold, while Chinese gold ETF holdings have also expanded significantly during the past three years.
• Eligible gold inventories in COMEX warehouses have fallen sharply, with the report estimating that roughly 4 million ounces have left eligible inventories in recent weeks. Rising U.S. gold exports are cited as another indication that physical metal may be moving toward strong Asian and other international demand centers.
• Precious metals remain a relatively small share of overall ETF assets. The report cites data showing precious-metals ETFs at approximately 3.7% of total ETF assets, compared with about 14.5% at the 2011 peak, suggesting institutional allocations remain well below that previous cycle.
• Stock-market concentration and AI spending are raising valuation concerns. According to the report, technology represents more than half of the S&P 500, while the 10 largest companies account for more than 40% of the index, creating heightened sensitivity to changes in sentiment toward mega-cap technology and AI-related spending.
• David McAlvany presented a bullish long-term case for physical precious metals, arguing in a Charles Schwab interview that elevated equity valuations, sovereign debt pressures, persistent inflation and tighter bond markets could create one of gold's strongest setups in decades. He also warned that U.S. equities could experience a 30% to 50% decline, which represents his forecast rather than an established market outcome.
• Silver could offer greater upside volatility but faces different demand dynamics than gold. McAlvany characterized silver as more dependent on investor and industrial demand because it lacks gold's central-bank buying support. He noted potential industrial substitution at higher prices while describing silver as roughly two to two-and-a-half times more volatile than gold.

Gold and silver markets faced another eventful week as rising bond yields, mounting debt costs, and shifting global demand kept investors focused on precious metals. Silver finished the week near $64.29 per oz, while gold price closed around $4,285 per oz as higher interest rates continued to pressure financial markets.

Meanwhile, China remains a major source of physical gold bullion demand, with imports reportedly on pace to exceed 1,500 metric tons this year. At the same time, eligible gold inventories in COMEX warehouses have fallen sharply, with roughly 4 million ounces reportedly leaving in recent weeks.

What could rising yields, strong Chinese demand, and declining COMEX inventories mean for gold and silver markets? Here are some of the major developments shaping the precious metals market.

Gold and Silver Finish the Week Under Pressure

Gold and silver traded lower during portions of the week as bond yields climbed and the U.S. dollar strengthened.

Silver spot price ultimately finished essentially flat at approximately $64.29 per oz. Gold ended the week modestly lower at roughly $4,285 per oz. The gold-to-silver ratio remained near 66.

The relatively stable weekly silver close came despite considerable pressure from the bond market. Higher Treasury yields can create competition for precious metals because investors can receive greater income from interest-bearing assets.

Bond Yields Move Higher

One of the week's biggest developments came from the Treasury market. CNBC's Rick Santelli highlighted an unusually large 18-basis-point move higher in the 5-year Treasury yield during a single trading session.

Santelli also placed today's rates into a longer historical perspective, noting that the average 10-year Treasury yield since 1980 has been roughly 5.2% to 5.6%. The recent rise in borrowing costs comes after an extended period when interest rates were historically low across much of the developed world.

For precious metals investors, the bond market remains important because changes in yields can influence the dollar, financing conditions, government borrowing costs, and demand for non-interest-bearing assets such as gold bars.

Government Debt Becomes More Expensive

Higher interest rates are also increasing the cost of servicing government debt.

The United States is already paying more than $1 trillion annually in interest on its debt, according to the market update. If 5-year Treasury yields remain above approximately 3.25%, the report argues that annual interest expenses could move toward $2 trillion within the next several years.

This challenge extends beyond the United States. Governments around the world accumulated substantial debt during the era of extremely low interest rates. Refinancing that debt at higher rates can place additional pressure on government budgets.

Mortgage Rates Add Pressure on U.S. Households

Consumers are also feeling the effects of higher borrowing costs.

The 30-year U.S. mortgage rate has climbed toward 7.5%, according to the report. Comparable levels were reached in May 2024, while similar borrowing costs before then require looking back toward the early 2000s.

Housing affordability remains particularly challenging because buyers are dealing with both elevated home prices and higher financing costs. The report estimates that interest expenses on a median-priced home have increased by nearly $1,200 per month compared with the beginning of the decade.

China's Gold Demand Remains Strong

While Western financial markets focus heavily on interest rates, China continues to play a significant role in physical gold demand.

Based on imports through approximately two-thirds of the year, China is reportedly on pace to import more than 1,500 metric tons of gold this year. The report also points to the growing amount of capital Chinese investors are directing toward gold compared with the previous decade.

Chinese gold ETF holdings have also expanded significantly. According to the report, gold held by Chinese ETFs has increased nearly fivefold during the past three years. Chinese authorities and financial institutions have also continued promoting physical gold accumulation and bullion purchasing services to retail investors.

Eligible Gold in COMEX is Collapsing

Another development worth watching is the decline in eligible gold inventories held in COMEX warehouses.

The report estimates that approximately 4 million ounces of eligible gold have left COMEX warehouses in recent weeks. At the same time, U.S. gold exports have increased.

The market update suggests some of this metal may be moving overseas to satisfy demand from China and other Eastern markets. While the ultimate destination of individual bars cannot be determined from the inventory figures alone, the combination of declining eligible inventories and stronger exports makes physical gold flows an important trend to monitor.

Precious Metals Remain a Small Share of ETF Assets

Despite gold's substantial gains over the broader bull market, precious metals remain a relatively small portion of total ETF holdings.

The report cites historical data showing precious metals ETFs represented approximately 14.5% of total ETF assets around the 2011 peak. Today, that figure is approximately 3.7%.

That comparison suggests institutional and retail portfolio allocations to precious metals remain considerably below the relative levels seen during the previous major precious metals cycle.

AI Spending and Stock Market Concentration Draw Attention

The report also highlights increasing concentration within the U.S. stock market.

Technology companies now represent more than half of the S&P 500 by the measure cited in the update, while the 10 largest companies account for more than 40% of the index. The report connects this concentration with historically large spending surrounding artificial intelligence.

High concentration does not necessarily mean stocks must decline. However, it means the performance of a relatively small group of companies can have an outsized influence on major market indexes.

David McAlvany Discusses Gold's Long-Term Setup

David McAlvany appeared on the Charles Schwab channel during the week and presented a cautious view of U.S. equities alongside a bullish long-term outlook for gold.

McAlvany argued that several long-term valuation measures show the S&P 500 trading at historically elevated levels. He suggested that a future stock market decline of 30% to 50% is possible, although this represents his market outlook rather than a certain outcome.

He identified the bond market as particularly important and pointed toward the combination of inflation, high sovereign debt levels, rising interest expenses, and tighter financial conditions.

McAlvany described the current environment as one of the strongest fundamental setups for gold his firm has observed over several decades, citing changing attitudes toward sovereign debt and continued demand for physical precious metals.

Silver Offers Different Risks and Opportunities

Silver shares many of gold's monetary characteristics, but its market structure is different.

McAlvany noted that silver does not receive the same central-bank demand that supports gold. Instead, silver depends more heavily on investor buying and industrial consumption. At sufficiently high prices, manufacturers may also attempt to reduce silver usage or substitute other materials where possible.

Silver's smaller market can also produce considerably larger price swings. McAlvany described silver as roughly two to two-and-a-half times more volatile than gold, meaning strong precious metals markets can potentially produce amplified silver moves in either direction.

What Gold and Silver Investors Should Watch Next

The coming weeks could provide important signals for both precious metals.

Treasury yields and the bond market remain central to the outlook as governments, businesses, and consumers adjust to higher borrowing costs. At the same time, China's physical gold demand and declining eligible COMEX gold inventories provide another side of the story that extends beyond Western financial markets.

Gold and silver are therefore navigating two powerful forces: tighter financial conditions in the West and continued demand for physical precious metals, particularly from Asian markets. How those forces develop could help determine the next major move in the bullion markets.

Source:

McAlvany: Market Seeing "Best Set Up for Gold Ever," Silver Offers More Torque
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdt0gAz3DUo

Inside The Royal Mint: SD Bullion Explores the Legendary Britannia Coin Program

China’s Test Silver Market Dominance: The World’s Most Critical Metal Faces a New Gatekeeper

• Silver just blew past $60, and while a brief pullback wouldn’t surprise anyone, the bigger takeaway is this: once you’re above old highs, the market starts feeling around for new ground—$64 to $65 is the next neighborhood to watch.
• This move doesn’t look like a one-day headline pop. Structurally, silver appears more likely to test $65 before revisiting $50, supported by strong physical demand and unusually persistent buyer activity.
• Here’s something flying under the radar: U.S. silver refining is clogged. One major refiner is even turning away ultra-pure 3–9 fine silver—not because it’s bad metal, but because capacity just isn’t there.
• On the supply side, silver deficits aren’t theoretical anymore. Industrial demand (EVs, electronics, solar) doesn’t blink when prices rise, especially in Asia, where manufacturers are quietly locking in physical inventory.
• A major market rumor worth watching: over 7,300 COMEX contracts (~36.7 million ounces) allegedly stood for delivery around Thanksgiving, possibly forcing a behind-the-scenes negotiation and costly rollover.
• Shortly after, JP Morgan shifted roughly 13.4 million ounces from “eligible” (deliverable) to “registered” (non-deliverable) inventory—fueling speculation that physical supply is tighter than headlines admit.
• Historically, silver is a little… bipolar. It can go nowhere for years, then double faster than anyone expects. The current surge fits past bull-market patterns eerily well.
• A lot of noise gets louder when silver runs. Some viral claims—like traders fleeing to Singapore overnight—don’t hold up. Not every rumor is signal, but some deserve careful watching.
• One myth worth busting: ETFs are not the same as owning metal. They offer price exposure, not possession—and in tight markets, that distinction matters more than most investors realize.
• Big picture? Both gold and silver look early in a longer bull cycle. Analysts see real potential for triple-digit silver over time and a sharply lower gold-silver ratio as physical scarcity becomes harder to ignore.

With export controls now in play, China’s dominance in silver refining and industrial demand is reshaping global supply chains—and raising hard questions for manufacturers, investors, and policymakers alike.

That clip was from my conversation about ongoing silver and gold markets "$60 Silver?! PLUS: Gold & Silver Myths—FACT or FICTION? " recorded Wednesday December 10, 2025 morning with SD Bullion COO Cole Keller. 

One of the more important slides and interesting gigantic Silver tonnage movements from the deliverable warranted Registered pile back into the undeliverable not futures contract warranted Eligible pile was this all time record sized movement of 13.4 million oz within the JP Morgan COMEX warehouse around the time of the suppose CME Server meltdown for 10 hours on Thanksgiving night.

The suspicion is that large Asian COMEX longs were looking to pull a gigantic amount of 1,000 oz silver bars from various COMEX shorts, and the resulting 10 hour negotiations required a cover story for the public at large to remain asleep.

The supposed silver market gorilla of JP Morgan's Registered pile has been effectively cut in half, down to a mere 16.8 million oz in a world running multi-hundred million ounce deficits yr after yr now since Covid basically broke this market's pricing structure between the West and the East.

I know, I have harped over this eye-raising silver price divergence price data and chart for years now. But as the first in the public domain to do that, I would like to stay on the cutting edge and help us all look a little forward towards 2026 and what kind of craziness likely lies ahead for the world's increasingly bifurcated silver  market.

Next month China is introducing export controls for silver, a critical mineral for the USA and any developed or emerging economies.

China isn't just "traditionally" a major player in the silver market having been involved using silver as the money through Mexico to Europe which establish global trade long before the USA was even a formal country.

No, instead now in late 2025, China is the world's dominate gatekeeper to new line mined silver worldwide and to come thanks to their gigantic silver refining infrastructure. 

This article, which I will backlink in the show notes states. "This policy transformation affects approx. 60-70% of global silver supply that has historically flowed from Chinese mining operations and dore imports to Western markets."

Silver lease rates in London have risen to as high as 8 to 9% this week from varying sources.

Bruce Ikemizu of the Japanese Bullion Association also highlights that lease rates in two other structural supply deficit markets Platinum  and Palladium are both elevate in London as well.

Momentum Structure Analysis' Michael Oliver has adjusted his highest level call for silver going into the first half of next year 2026.

He has been painting a picture in recent public domain interviews and within their research of a new elevated price structure for silver coming next year, one that is in triple digit landía potentially multiples from here.

I know, it sound nuts not merely to normies, but also too to many grizzled long haul stackers watching this video.

He cited recent historic base metal markets that broke out of multi-decade price channel ranges and into new higher price paradigm structures in short order.

Specifically in 2005, back when China was stockpiling gigantic never before seen amounts of base metals like copper and lead.

Here you can see copper demand from China in 2005 basically 3-folding the then price within about a year's timeframe into 2006.

Similar story for lead in about a two year timeframe.

Silver is finally this year busting out of a 45 year range.

And the demand for both industrial silver applications be them in solar panels, or cars the likes of which are often now electric in China. Well they got to have silver, so export controls 2026-2027. Good luck India, and the Western world, China is going to take care of its ongoing and upcoming silver demands first.

Stick around, other side of this short break we're going to go through Silver price doubling or more history on a year over year basis. You'll be surprised how often this has happened and how high it has gone at times.

The spot silver price briefly broke above $64 oz today and set a new nominal price high weekly close at $61.80 oz bid. 

The spot gold price ended this week with strength trading at close above a $4,300 oz bid price.

The spot gold silver ratio ends this week at 69 with a intra-week dip down to 66 illustrating the momentum being still with the silver market.

Guesses for Central Bank Gold demand to close this year, and for the entire next year 2026 are being published in public as the world bullion over bonds trade continues onwards.

Anywhere from 750 to over 1000 tons is the finger in the air guesswork. All tonnage volumes higher than anything seen during the post WW2 Bretton Woods gold raid from the then United States's once powerhouse over 20,000 ton hoard.

The fiat silver Canadian price keeps blasting northward. No to the tune of 1 oz American Silver Eagle coins being priced at triple digits per oz retail.

Even with all this silver price running here and in Canada, the nominal prices for silver in two of the most overvalued fiat currencies in the world, both Japan and Switzerland have yet to hit their 1980 nominal price high levels in then much stronger fiat currency units.

Synched with the silver price from 1971, the Japanese yen in red and the Swiss franc in green both have a date with the high ninety percentile to come.

Both currency units originally defined as weights in fine silver weights, the irony is not lost on any financial historian stackers.

Japanese investors aren't taking the devaluation of their fiat yen laying down, some of them have piled into unsecured Gold ETFs to the tune of six fold gold tonnage bought this year in 2025 dwarfing last year 2024.

The reported Indian silver ETF pile keeps growing claiming now over 102 million ounces. Reports this week state that Indian Pensions are now being allowed to invest in Gold Silver funds, the only laughable part of this news is the pathetic 1% allocation allowed thus far. At the very least things are moving in the right direction there.

Finally to close, I want to remind you that ever since Constitutional silver came out of our circulating coinage in the USA, and ever since the old $1.29 oz silver price rig broke in 1967. The silver price on a year to year percentage move basis has effectively doubled or more in price some 11 instances over the last 58 years.

Yes this has happened and often the secular silver bull market spanning decades come in increasing waves of upside.

In 1967 we saw a simple price doubling, then in 1974 a silver price doubling, and from early 1979 into 1980 silver ran from around $6 to $50 in about 13 months.

So yea in nominal terms this could get to looking real silly from here through perhaps many points next year.

REFERENCES:

China Silver Export Restrictions (2026-2027) Transform Global Market Dynamics:
https://discoveryalert.com.au/china-silver-export-restrictions-impact-2025

Gold and the Great Unraveling | Michael Oliver w/ James Anderson - Nov 9, 2018:
https://youtu.be/BZZnRVc0UGk?si=RHsQzFs0wA3g9THJ

James Anderson with Cole Keller of SD Bullion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OellcvBZii0

China’s Silver Market Dominance: The World’s Most Critical Metal Faces a New Gatekeeper

• Silver just blew past $60, and while a brief pullback wouldn’t surprise anyone, the bigger takeaway is this: once you’re above old highs, the market starts feeling around for new ground—$64 to $65 is the next neighborhood to watch.
• This move doesn’t look like a one-day headline pop. Structurally, silver appears more likely to test $65 before revisiting $50, supported by strong physical demand and unusually persistent buyer activity.
• Here’s something flying under the radar: U.S. silver refining is clogged. One major refiner is even turning away ultra-pure 3–9 fine silver—not because it’s bad metal, but because capacity just isn’t there.
• On the supply side, silver deficits aren’t theoretical anymore. Industrial demand (EVs, electronics, solar) doesn’t blink when prices rise, especially in Asia, where manufacturers are quietly locking in physical inventory.
• A major market rumor worth watching: over 7,300 COMEX contracts (~36.7 million ounces) allegedly stood for delivery around Thanksgiving, possibly forcing a behind-the-scenes negotiation and costly rollover.
• Shortly after, JP Morgan shifted roughly 13.4 million ounces from “eligible” (deliverable) to “registered” (non-deliverable) inventory—fueling speculation that physical supply is tighter than headlines admit.
• Historically, silver is a little… bipolar. It can go nowhere for years, then double faster than anyone expects. The current surge fits past bull-market patterns eerily well.
• A lot of noise gets louder when silver runs. Some viral claims—like traders fleeing to Singapore overnight—don’t hold up. Not every rumor is signal, but some deserve careful watching.
• One myth worth busting: ETFs are not the same as owning metal. They offer price exposure, not possession—and in tight markets, that distinction matters more than most investors realize.
• Big picture? Both gold and silver look early in a longer bull cycle. Analysts see real potential for triple-digit silver over time and a sharply lower gold-silver ratio as physical scarcity becomes harder to ignore.

With export controls now in play, China’s dominance in silver refining and industrial demand is reshaping global supply chains—and raising hard questions for manufacturers, investors, and policymakers alike.

That clip was from my conversation about ongoing silver and gold markets "$60 Silver?! PLUS: Gold & Silver Myths—FACT or FICTION? " recorded Wednesday December 10, 2025 morning with SD Bullion COO Cole Keller. 

One of the more important slides and interesting gigantic Silver tonnage movements from the deliverable warranted Registered pile back into the undeliverable not futures contract warranted Eligible pile was this all time record sized movement of 13.4 million oz within the JP Morgan COMEX warehouse around the time of the suppose CME Server meltdown for 10 hours on Thanksgiving night.

The suspicion is that large Asian COMEX longs were looking to pull a gigantic amount of 1,000 oz silver bars from various COMEX shorts, and the resulting 10 hour negotiations required a cover story for the public at large to remain asleep.

The supposed silver market gorilla of JP Morgan's Registered pile has been effectively cut in half, down to a mere 16.8 million oz in a world running multi-hundred million ounce deficits yr after yr now since Covid basically broke this market's pricing structure between the West and the East.

I know, I have harped over this eye-raising silver price divergence price data and chart for years now. But as the first in the public domain to do that, I would like to stay on the cutting edge and help us all look a little forward towards 2026 and what kind of craziness likely lies ahead for the world's increasingly bifurcated silver  market.

Next month China is introducing export controls for silver, a critical mineral for the USA and any developed or emerging economies.

China isn't just "traditionally" a major player in the silver market having been involved using silver as the money through Mexico to Europe which establish global trade long before the USA was even a formal country.

No, instead now in late 2025, China is the world's dominate gatekeeper to new line mined silver worldwide and to come thanks to their gigantic silver refining infrastructure. 

This article, which I will backlink in the show notes states. "This policy transformation affects approx. 60-70% of global silver supply that has historically flowed from Chinese mining operations and dore imports to Western markets."

Silver lease rates in London have risen to as high as 8 to 9% this week from varying sources.

Bruce Ikemizu of the Japanese Bullion Association also highlights that lease rates in two other structural supply deficit markets Platinum  and Palladium are both elevate in London as well.

Momentum Structure Analysis' Michael Oliver has adjusted his highest level call for silver going into the first half of next year 2026.

He has been painting a picture in recent public domain interviews and within their research of a new elevated price structure for silver coming next year, one that is in triple digit landía potentially multiples from here.

I know, it sound nuts not merely to normies, but also too to many grizzled long haul stackers watching this video.

He cited recent historic base metal markets that broke out of multi-decade price channel ranges and into new higher price paradigm structures in short order.

Specifically in 2005, back when China was stockpiling gigantic never before seen amounts of base metals like copper and lead.

Here you can see copper demand from China in 2005 basically 3-folding the then price within about a year's timeframe into 2006.

Similar story for lead in about a two year timeframe.

Silver is finally this year busting out of a 45 year range.

And the demand for both industrial silver applications be them in solar panels, or cars the likes of which are often now electric in China. Well they got to have silver, so export controls 2026-2027. Good luck India, and the Western world, China is going to take care of its ongoing and upcoming silver demands first.

Stick around, other side of this short break we're going to go through Silver price doubling or more history on a year over year basis. You'll be surprised how often this has happened and how high it has gone at times.

The spot silver price briefly broke above $64 oz today and set a new nominal price high weekly close at $61.80 oz bid. 

The spot gold price ended this week with strength trading at close above a $4,300 oz bid price.

The spot gold silver ratio ends this week at 69 with a intra-week dip down to 66 illustrating the momentum being still with the silver market.

Guesses for Central Bank Gold demand to close this year, and for the entire next year 2026 are being published in public as the world bullion over bonds trade continues onwards.

Anywhere from 750 to over 1000 tons is the finger in the air guesswork. All tonnage volumes higher than anything seen during the post WW2 Bretton Woods gold raid from the then United States's once powerhouse over 20,000 ton hoard.

The fiat silver Canadian price keeps blasting northward. No to the tune of 1 oz American Silver Eagle coins being priced at triple digits per oz retail.

Even with all this silver price running here and in Canada, the nominal prices for silver in two of the most overvalued fiat currencies in the world, both Japan and Switzerland have yet to hit their 1980 nominal price high levels in then much stronger fiat currency units.

Synched with the silver price from 1971, the Japanese yen in red and the Swiss franc in green both have a date with the high ninety percentile to come.

Both currency units originally defined as weights in fine silver weights, the irony is not lost on any financial historian stackers.

Japanese investors aren't taking the devaluation of their fiat yen laying down, some of them have piled into unsecured Gold ETFs to the tune of six fold gold tonnage bought this year in 2025 dwarfing last year 2024.

The reported Indian silver ETF pile keeps growing claiming now over 102 million ounces. Reports this week state that Indian Pensions are now being allowed to invest in Gold Silver funds, the only laughable part of this news is the pathetic 1% allocation allowed thus far. At the very least things are moving in the right direction there.

Finally to close, I want to remind you that ever since Constitutional silver came out of our circulating coinage in the USA, and ever since the old $1.29 oz silver price rig broke in 1967. The silver price on a year to year percentage move basis has effectively doubled or more in price some 11 instances over the last 58 years.

Yes this has happened and often the secular silver bull market spanning decades come in increasing waves of upside.

In 1967 we saw a simple price doubling, then in 1974 a silver price doubling, and from early 1979 into 1980 silver ran from around $6 to $50 in about 13 months.

So yea in nominal terms this could get to looking real silly from here through perhaps many points next year.

REFERENCES:

China Silver Export Restrictions (2026-2027) Transform Global Market Dynamics:
https://discoveryalert.com.au/china-silver-export-restrictions-impact-2025

Gold and the Great Unraveling | Michael Oliver w/ James Anderson - Nov 9, 2018:
https://youtu.be/BZZnRVc0UGk?si=RHsQzFs0wA3g9THJ

James Anderson with Cole Keller of SD Bullion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OellcvBZii0

SD Bullion travels to Wales for an exclusive behind-the-scenes look at the revival of one of Britain’s most historic iconic coin designs — from centuries-old Angel coins and royal ceremonies to the striking of brand-new gold and silver Angels on the minting floor itself. 

There are moments in the bullion world that feel bigger than coins. Bigger than ounces, premiums, or mintages. Standing inside The Royal Mint in Wales, watching molten history transformed into modern bullion art, was one of those moments — the kind of experience that reminds you why precious metals collectors become so obsessed with this hobby in the first place.

The Royal Mint does not feel like a factory.

It feels like a cathedral dedicated to metal.

The drive into Llantrisant, Wales, already sets the tone. The roads twist through rolling green countryside under heavy gray skies that seem pulled straight from a medieval painting. Even getting there feels symbolic — SD Bullion CEO Chase Turner and COO Cole Keller navigating the “wrong” side of the road from London, laughing through roundabouts and narrow Welsh roads before arriving at one of the oldest minting institutions on Earth.

And then suddenly, there it is.

The Royal Mint.

Not just a building, but a living continuation of British monetary history stretching back over 1,100 years.

The kind of place where you instantly lower your voice without realizing it.

Where every hallway feels heavy with legacy.

Where gold has been transformed into symbols of power, empire, protection, and belief for centuries.

But this visit was about something different.

Something almost mythical.

The rebirth of the Angel.

The First Time Seeing the Angel

Every serious collector knows the feeling.

That split second when you see a coin design and immediately know it is special.

Not “interesting.”

Not “nice.”

Special.

Cole Keller described it perfectly during the visit. The Angel design appeared during a product roadmap presentation, buried among other concepts and pitch decks. Then suddenly — the meeting stopped. Completely.

“What is this?”

That was the reaction.

Because the Angel does not look like modern bullion. It looks timeless.

The design strikes with immediate force: St. Michael descending in triumph, slaying the dragon beneath him — good overcoming evil in a single dramatic moment frozen in metal. The composition carries movement, energy, and symbolism all at once. Unlike sterile modern coinage, the Angel feels alive.

And holding the finished pieces inside The Royal Mint museum made it even more surreal.

Freshly struck gold Angels sat gleaming under museum lights beside genuine 600-year-old originals from the 1460s.

Six centuries separated them.

Yet the connection was unmistakable.

The original Angel coin was first introduced during the reign of Edward IV in 1465. At a time when monarchs ruled through divine authority, the Angel became more than currency. It represented heavenly protection, royal legitimacy, and spiritual power.

Royal Mint historian Chris Barker explained the imagery with visible admiration.

St. Michael, protector against evil, stands victorious over a beast-like dragon figure representing the devil itself. Even the Latin inscription carried over into the modern release translates to:

“By Thy Cross Save Us, O Christ Redeemer.”

That inscription alone feels like something pulled from a lost medieval relic.

Because in many ways, it is.

The Ceremony of the King’s Evil

Then the story became even stranger.

And better.

Inside the museum, Chris Barker revealed historic Angel coins pierced with holes. At first glance, they almost seem damaged. But the truth behind them transports you directly into medieval England.

For centuries, people believed monarchs possessed divine healing powers granted directly from God.

Victims suffering from scrofula — known as “The King’s Evil” — would attend ceremonial healing rituals where the monarch touched them while presenting blessed Angel coins. Those coins were then pierced, threaded with silk, and worn around the neck like sacred amulets for protection and healing.

Imagine that.

A gold coin functioning simultaneously as money, spiritual object, royal symbol, and protective talisman.

That is the kind of layered history modern bullion almost never captures anymore.

Most coins today are products.

The Angel is a story.

Standing there hearing this while holding the modern reinterpretation created a strange feeling difficult to describe as a collector. Suddenly the design was no longer just beautiful artwork.

It had weight.

Meaning.

Continuity.

The modern release suddenly felt less like a new coin and more like a resurrection.

Seeing Ancient Craftsmanship Up Close

Then came one of the most jaw-dropping moments of the entire tour.

Chris Barker unveiled an original Angel coin punch dating back to the 1620s.

The room practically froze.

Because the detailing was unbelievable.

The engraving was razor sharp despite being over 400 years old. Every line had been cut entirely by hand. No CNC machines. No lasers. No digital sculpting software. Just human skill, patience, and artistry.

The realization hits hard when you see it in person:

Every historic coin collectors admire today once began as raw steel touched by an engraver’s hand.

Barker explained how these master punches became the foundation for creating working dies, which then struck hundreds of coins before wearing out. The actual minting process during the Tudor and Stuart eras was shockingly primitive by modern standards — dies fixed into wooden blocks, blanks placed between them, then struck manually with hammers.

Yet somehow, those craftsmen still produced coins beautiful enough to survive six centuries and inspire an entirely new bullion program today.

That connection between ancient craftsmanship and modern minting becomes impossible to ignore during this tour.

Entering the Production Floor

Then came the moment every bullion collector dreams about.

Walking onto the production floor.

The atmosphere changes immediately.

The museum carries reverence.

The mint floor carries energy.

Machines thunder rhythmically across the facility while polished blanks move through highly controlled production lines under bright industrial lighting. Massive presses operate with hypnotic precision, each strike delivering enormous force in fractions of a second.

And somewhere in the middle of that controlled chaos, gold Angels were being born.

Not displayed.

Not photographed.

Created.

Fresh one-ounce gold Angel coins emerged from the presses with blazing luster, their surfaces catching light in sharp bursts as employees carefully monitored production.

But the unforgettable part?

Chase and Cole actually got to strike them.

Not symbolic participation.

Real minting.

Real presses.

Real gold coins.

“I got to start the press. I got to make these,” Chase said with obvious disbelief while holding newly struck pieces.

For collectors, that is almost impossible to imagine.

Most people buy bullion after it disappears into tubes and monster boxes. Very few ever witness the exact instant a coin enters existence.

Inside The Royal Mint, that veil disappears.

You hear the presses.

You smell the machine oil and metal.

You watch blanks transform into finished bullion in seconds.

And suddenly coins stop feeling mass-produced.

They feel engineered.

Crafted.

Earned.

Gordon Summers and the Modern Angel

Meeting Chief Engraver Gordon Summers revealed just how much artistry hides behind great bullion design.

Summers is not merely an engraver.

He is a sculptor of national identity.

Having worked at The Royal Mint for over 30 years, his career began after winning a medal design competition and teaching himself engraving almost entirely on his own.

His explanation of coin design was fascinating because it exposed the balance between beauty and technical survivability.

A design cannot merely look good on paper.

It must strike correctly.

Flow correctly.

Resist defects.

Maintain detail through large production runs.

And still emotionally connect with collectors.

That challenge becomes even harder with bullion because unlike low-mintage proofs, bullion coins must maintain exceptional quality across massive volumes.

Summers explained how the Angel’s radiating background lines serve dual purposes — enhancing visual drama while also reducing visible imperfections and strengthening anti-counterfeit security.

That tiny detail perfectly captures modern minting philosophy:

Beauty fused with function.

And perhaps the most powerful statement came directly from Summers himself.

“This is a design that’s an instant classic.”

Collectors know exactly what he means.

Some coins become popular.

Others become timeless.

The Angel feels destined for the second category.

The Royal Mint’s Future Meets Its Past

One of the most fascinating aspects of the entire visit was realizing how intentionally The Royal Mint balances innovation with heritage.

During conversations with Andrew Dickey, Director of Precious Metals, discussions shifted toward Britannia security technology, advanced micro-detailing, latent imaging, tincture lines, and anti-counterfeit innovations.

Yet despite all the technological sophistication, the emotional core of the Angel program remains ancient.

Protection.

Strength.

Triumph over evil.

Divine symbolism.

Those ideas resonate today just as powerfully as they did in medieval England.

That is why the Angel works.

It does not feel like a marketing creation.

It feels rediscovered.

The Feeling Collectors Chase

Every serious bullion collector eventually realizes something important:

The best coins are not just metal.

They carry atmosphere.

And the Angel carries atmosphere in abundance.

Standing inside The Royal Mint while these coins emerged from the presses felt like watching history loop back on itself. Ancient symbolism met modern precision. Medieval iconography collided with contemporary bullion demand. Six hundred years of British minting tradition condensed into a single ounce of gold.

That is what makes this release exciting.

Not just scarcity.

Not just craftsmanship.

Not just exclusivity.

But the feeling.

The feeling that when you hold an Angel coin, you are holding a design that already survived centuries — and may very well survive centuries more.

For modern bullion collectors, experiences like this are why the hobby becomes an obsession.

Because every now and then, a coin comes along that reminds you precious metals were never only about investment.

Sometimes they are about legacy.

Sometimes they are about history.

And sometimes, like the Angel, they feel almost immortal.

As the day at The Royal Mint came to a close, the experience shifted from historic minting halls to something equally authentic — Welsh culture itself. Andrew Dickey, Director of Precious Metals at The Royal Mint, and his team welcomed Chase and Cole to a local pub to watch the Wales national rugby union team, ending the evening surrounded by passionate fans, great conversation, and the unmistakable pride that runs through the country. It was the perfect reminder that behind every legendary mint are real people — engravers, historians, craftsmen, and leaders — all deeply connected to the traditions they help preserve. At SD Bullion, these are the moments we love sharing most. Not just the finished coins, but the stories, personalities, and history behind them. As long as we have the opportunity to work alongside the world’s greatest mints, we’ll continue bringing collectors an all-access pass behind the scenes of the bullion world.

Why China Is Buying Massive Amounts of Silver Right Now | NTD News Interview

• China imported more than 800 tons of silver in March, marking one of the largest monthly inflows in recent years and signaling unusually strong demand from the world’s largest manufacturing economy.
• SD Bullion Senior Analyst James Anderson said the silver surge appears tied to both industrial consumption and growing concerns about future silver supply shortages.
• China has reportedly tightened restrictions on silver exports, reducing outbound flows while simultaneously increasing domestic accumulation of the metal.
• Silver continues to play a critical role in modern industrial applications, including solar panels, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, robotics, and advanced electronics.
• Anderson noted that silver inventories across major global trading hubs — including Shanghai, London, and COMEX warehouses — have been steadily declining in recent years.
• Despite silver’s recent correction from earlier highs, Anderson argued that the broader long-term fundamentals for the metal remain strong due to persistent supply deficits and rising industrial demand.
• Investment demand for silver in China is also increasing as gold prices become less affordable for retail buyers, potentially broadening silver’s appeal as an alternative precious metal.
• Anderson described the silver market as increasingly vulnerable to future supply squeezes, particularly in an environment where industrial demand continues to outpace new mine supply.
• On investment strategy, Anderson expressed a preference for physical precious metals ownership over paper-based products, citing concerns about counterparty risk and long-term financial stability.
• While emphasizing that timing remains uncertain, Anderson suggested silver could continue attracting global investor attention over the coming years as electrification, renewable energy expansion, and digital infrastructure growth drive demand higher.

China’s silver demand is surging amid strong industrial use and supply deficits.

SD Bullion Senior Analyst James Anderson was featured on NTD News this past week, where he discussed trends in the global silver market and China’s growing demand.

According to Anderson, China imported more than 800 tons of silver in March alone — roughly two to three times normal levels — as the country increases manufacturing activity and responds to concerns about future supply availability. He highlighted silver’s important role in industries such as solar energy, electric vehicles, AI, robotics, and electronics, while noting that silver inventories in Shanghai, London, and COMEX warehouses have been declining.

Anderson also shared his view that strong industrial demand and ongoing supply deficits could continue to support long-term interest in silver. In addition, he noted that investment demand in China may continue to grow as gold prices rise and affordability changes for retail buyers.

When discussing investment preferences, Anderson expressed a personal preference for physical silver bullion ownership over paper assets, citing reduced counterparty risk and long-term wealth preservation considerations.

Jump to: First Mintage of the Penny | Why is it Fading | Last Design | The Bronze Penny | Should you Cash In your Pennies? | Looking Ahead

The penny has been a mainstay of American life for more than two centuries, but its days of production are coming to an end. On November 12, the U.S. Mint struck what is expected to be the final batch of one-cent coins in Philadelphia, closing a 232-year chapter in American coinage history. 

While pennies remain legal tender, the decision reflects the rising costs of production and the declining role of cash in everyday transactions.

Key Takeaways

• The U.S. Mint has likely struck the final circulating batch of pennies after 232 years.
• Producing each penny now costs more than its face value due to rising production costs.
• Cash transactions continue to decline, reducing the practicality of circulating low-denomination coins.
• Collectors may benefit from increased scarcity, attention, and value—especially for rare or historic issues.

The First Mintage of the Penny

The story of the American penny begins with the founding of the U.S. Mint in 1792. The Mint’s goal was to establish a national coinage system, and the one-cent coin became an essential part of everyday commerce.

Source || PCGS

The first official pennies were struck in 1793, featuring the famous “Flowing Hair” design. These early coins were made primarily of copper and represented one of the first efforts to unify the fledgling nation’s currency.

Over the centuries, the penny evolved in composition and design, but it remained an integral part of American life—used by children collecting coins, businesses rounding out transactions, and collectors seeking rare and historic issues.

Why the Penny Is Fading

Back in February, we covered how President Trump instructed his Secretary of the US Treasury to stop producing new pennies.

Over the past decade, it has become increasingly expensive to produce pennies. In 2015, the Mint’s cost to create a single penny was 1.42 cents. By 2025, that figure had climbed to 3.69 cents per coin—more than the coin’s face value. With cash payments now accounting for just 14% of consumer transactions, compared to 31% in 2016, pennies are becoming less practical.

Data extracted from the US Mint 2024 Annual Report

Banks and retailers are adjusting accordingly. Many coin-counting kiosks and in-branch machines are disappearing, making it harder to exchange jars of change for usable cash. Some businesses, inspired by Canada’s 2013 penny phase-out, are already rounding transactions to the nearest nickel, while others simply post signs stating they do not accept pennies.

Inflation Is Taking Its Toll

Beyond practicality, inflation erodes the value of coins stored at home. For example, a household that had $100 in coins five years ago would now see that same amount buy roughly $20 less, based on current consumer price index data. And unlike assets that hold or appreciate in value, loose change sitting in jars simply loses purchasing power over time.

For many individuals looking to protect their wealth, precious metals such as gold and silver offer a long-standing hedge against inflation and the devaluation of fiat currency. Historically, these metals have preserved value even during periods of economic uncertainty, currency depreciation, or rising consumer prices.

While pennies may lose ground to inflation, bullion products retain their intrinsic value and can serve as a safeguard in a diversified financial strategy.

For collectors, however, the story is different. Pennies—particularly older or rare varieties—may now gain renewed attention as supply diminishes. Coins like the 1943 D Lincoln Bronze Penny, Wheat Cents, and other historic one-cent issues have long commanded collector interest and value. Even everyday pennies may become a focus for enthusiasts who recognize the historical significance of the last circulating cents.

See our list of the most valuable pennies for collectors.

The Penny's Last Design

Source || US Mint

The penny most Americans are familiar with features President Abraham Lincoln on the obverse, a design created by Victor D. Brenner and first introduced in 1909 to commemorate Lincoln’s 100th birthday.

In 2010, the reverse was updated with the Union Shield design by artists Lyndall Bass and Joseph Menna. Symbolizing the nation’s unity and strength, the shield, with its vertical stripes and banner, reinforces the idea of the United States as a cohesive entity, tying the coin’s historical significance to modern symbolism.

The Lincoln penny has become one of the most recognizable coins in the world, and its final design now represents the culmination of over a century of numismatic history.

The 1943 Bronze Penny – A Record-Breaking Rarity

One of the most famous rarities in U.S. coinage is the 1943 Bronze Lincoln Penny. During World War II, copper was urgently needed for the war effort, so the U.S. Mint produced pennies using zinc-coated steel. However, a small number of bronze planchets from 1942 were mistakenly fed into the presses at the Philadelphia, Denver, and San Francisco mints.

These accidental bronze 1943 pennies are some of the rarest coins ever released into circulation. In recent years, high-grade examples have sold for over $1 million, making the coin potentially the most valuable penny in history.

The mystique surrounding the 1943 Bronze Penny has captivated collectors for decades, reinforcing that even the humblest coin can become a treasure under the right circumstances.

See other Penny Errors Collectors Should Look For.

Should You Cash In Your Pennies?

Financial planners suggest now is a good time to convert loose change into cash or deposit it in an interest-bearing account. With the penny’s purchasing power eroding, coins that sit in jars at home are not only inconvenient but slowly losing value.

For collectors, the appeal may lie in selectively saving notable coins, but for the average consumer, it may make more sense to roll up the pennies and put them to work in a modern financial account.

Also read: New U.S. Mint Director Nominated— Why Paul Hollis Could Be a Big Win for Coin Collectors.

Looking Ahead

While the penny may no longer be minted in the coming years, its place in American history is secure. From the iconic Lincoln cent to rare collectible issues, pennies have long told a story of the nation’s evolving economy and culture.

For those interested in precious metals and numismatics, SD Bullion’s blog provides plenty of ways to explore coins with enduring value, whether silver, gold, or historic collectibles like the Wheat Cent.

Even as the era of the penny winds down, coin collectors and enthusiasts can celebrate the legacy of one of America’s most iconic coins—while making sure any loose change in jars today doesn’t go to waste.

Updated 8/11/25 President Donald Trump said in Truth Social post that gold will not face tariffs. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/trump-gold-tariffs-futures.html)

SUMMARY: Gold Futures Hit Record High on Swiss Tariff Misreport — $100 Spread Signals Supply Jitters

• Analysts criticized how easily gold and precious metals markets can be manipulated in the short term through selective information and leveraged futures.

• Gold futures hit a record intraday high of $3,533 per oz after a U.S. Customs ruling letter mistakenly implied a 39% tariff on Swiss 1-kilo and 100-oz gold bars.

• The Financial Times report on the ruling, widely echoed by other media, fueled a sharp $100 spread between U.S. futures and London spot prices. (https://www.ft.com/content/5f5206ab-6557-4421-b977-83d396734616)

• The White House later refuted the tariff interpretation, calling it misinformation, but not before markets reacted strongly. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/08/gold-futures-trade-off-highs-as-white-house-to-issue-clarification-on-bullion-tariffs.html)

• Cutting off Swiss gold supply would remove access to more than half of newly refined global gold kilo bar production, pressuring U.S. gold bullion availability.

• Commentary suggested that a future partial return to a gold-linked monetary system is conceivable if confidence in fiat currencies erodes further.

• Silver remains in a global deficit for the fifth consecutive year, with industrial demand consuming about 81% of mine output.

• Adversary nations are increasing gold, silver, and platinum holdings, with platinum purchases exceeding NYMEX reported inventories.

• U.S. housing is becoming cheaper in bullion terms, with seller-to-buyer ratios hinting at further price declines in gold and silver terms.

• Both gold and silver prices rose on the week, with spot silver at $38.37 and gold just under $3,400.

Tariff Confusion and Media Frenzy Send U.S. Gold Futures to All-Time Highs

A misinterpreted U.S. Customs ruling on Swiss gold bars triggered a $100 futures-spot spread, fueling market volatility, global supply concerns, and renewed bullion demand.

Urgent Window of Opportunity: Silver Maple Leaf Coins Could Have a Temporarily Exempt from Tariffs (in March)

In a surprising policy shift, President Trump issued temporary tariff exemptions on 3/6/2025 for a wide range of goods coming into the U.S. from Canada and Mexico, partially reversing the sweeping 25% tariffs he imposed on the two trading partners on 3/4/2025.

The exemptions will apply to goods that are compliant with the North American trade agreement known as the USMCA Agreement. About 50% of Mexican imports and 38% of Canadian imports are covered by the trade agreement. A tentative pause will last until 4/2/2025.

The Royal Canadian Mint's Silver Maple Leaf coins are likely to meet USMCA requirements for preferential tariff treatment, provided they are produced in Canada from silver that either originates within the USMCA region or undergoes the necessary tariff classification change during production. Importers should maintain proper documentation to substantiate the  Canadian silver coins' originating status and comply with U.S. customs regulations during importation.

USMCA Qualification Criteria

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) provides preferential tariff treatment to goods that meet its rules of origin. For a product like the Silver Maple Leaf coin from the Royal Canadian Mint (RCM) to qualify under USMCA, it must meet specific requirements:

1. Originating Goods Rule

For the Silver Maple Leaf coin to be considered "originating" under USMCA, it must be:

Wholly obtained or produced in Canada, OR

Substantially transformed in Canada, meeting the necessary regional value content (RVC) rules.

2. Canadian Origin of Silver Maple Leaf Coins

The Royal Canadian Mint produces Silver Maple Leaf coins in Canada using high-purity silver (99.99%). For these coins to qualify under USMCA, the key considerations include:

If the silver is mined and refined in Canada, the coins are wholly obtained and meet the requirement.

If the silver is imported (e.g., from Mexico or another country) but refined and minted in Canada, then additional rules like tariff shifts or regional value content tests may apply.

3. Tariff Classification & Tariff Shift Requirement

Silver Maple Leaf coins likely fall under HS Code 7118.90 (coins of precious metal).

If the raw silver is imported and then refined and minted into coins in Canada, it must undergo a tariff shift to qualify as a Canadian-origin product.

The transformation from raw silver (HS 7106) to a minted coin (HS 7118) could satisfy the rule.

4. Regional Value Content (RVC) - If Required

Some goods must meet a percentage-based regional value content test. However, precious metal coins often qualify based on wholly obtained or tariff shift rules, making an RVC calculation unnecessary.

5. Certification for USMCA Preferential Tariff

To claim duty-free treatment under USMCA, the exporter (RCM) or importer (U.S. buyer) must provide a USMCA Certification of Origin, confirming the coins meet the agreement’s rules.

USMCA Tariff Rules for RCM Silver Maple Leaf Coins Explained

To ensure that the Royal Canadian Mint's (RCM) Silver Maple Leaf coins qualify for preferential tariff treatment under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), it's essential to understand the agreement's rules of origin and how they apply to these silver coins.

1. USMCA Rules of Origin for Precious Metal Coins

Under the USMCA, goods must meet specific criteria to be considered originating and thus eligible for preferential treatment. For products classified under Chapter 71 of the Harmonized System (which includes precious metals and coins), the agreement specifies:

Wholly Obtained or Produced Goods: Items entirely sourced or produced within the USMCA territories (the U.S., Canada, or Mexico).

Tariff Classification Changes: Goods that undergo a specified change in tariff classification as a result of production processes conducted within the USMCA region.

For precious metal coins, the relevant rule is:

Chapter 71: A change to heading 71.18 from any other heading. 

This means that if raw silver (classified under a different heading) is transformed into coins (heading 71.18) within Canada, the coins can be considered originating.

2. Application to Silver Maple Leaf Coins

The Royal Canadian Mint produces Silver Maple Leaf coins with a silver purity of 99.99%. The origin of the silver used is crucial:

Canadian-Mined Silver: If the silver is mined and refined in Canada, the coins are considered wholly obtained and meet the USMCA origin criteria.

Imported Silver: If the silver is sourced from outside Canada but is refined and minted into silver coins within Canada, the transformation must result in a change in tariff classification to heading 71.18 to qualify as originating.

3. Certification and Importation into the U.S.

To benefit from USMCA preferential treatment when importing these coins into the United States:

 Certification of Origin: While the USMCA does not mandate a specific certificate of origin form, importers must have documentation supporting the product's originating status. 

 U.S. Customs Declaration: Gold coins, medals, or silver bullion are duty-free but must be declared to a U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Officer upon entry. 

Conclusion

If the Silver Maple Leaf coins are made from Canadian-mined and refined silver, they automatically qualify as originating under USMCA. If the silver is imported but processed into coins in Canada, the transformation must meet tariff shift requirements. Given that the RCM mints these coins in Canada, they likely meet USMCA requirements for preferential trade into the U.S.

 References:

https://www.help.cbp.gov/s/article/Article-1594?language=en_US

https://mitchelltrade.com/article/determining-origin-under-the-usmca

Summary

• Economic Reality: The economy is not as strong as it seems, as it's propped up by historic deficits.
• Recession Looms: Without these deficits, a recession would be inevitable.
• Federal Reserve Pivot: The Fed is signaling a rate cut cycle due to rising unemployment.
• Consumer Strain: Corporate earnings reveal that consumers are struggling to afford basic necessities.
• Dollar General's Struggles: Dollar General's CEO highlighted the financial strain of their customers.
• Record Credit Card Debt: US consumers are carrying record-high credit card debt and have low savings rates.
• Price Rigging Scandal: Goldman Sachs, BASF, HSBC, and ICBC Standard Bank settled a price-rigging lawsuit for precious metals.
• Gold and Silver Manipulation: Evidence suggests that gold and silver prices have also been manipulated.
• Market Corrections: Historically, artificially suppressed markets eventually experience shortages and price spikes.
• Recession Indicators: Goldman Sachs' job cuts and other factors point towards a potential recession.

When people say that the economy is super strong, they almost always fail to mention that we are currently running HISTORIC deficits not seen outside of WW2, the 2008 GFC or 2020 Covid. If we weren’t running this deficit and balancing the budget, GDP would collapse and economic recession would already be admitted.

While the fiat Federal Reserve is now signaling it is pivoting next month to a rate cut cycle as US unemployment has been rising.

We are already seeing circumstantial evidence of recession from corporate earnings conference calls that the average US consumer is tapping out of funds to spend on the basics.

Major US retailer Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos stated this week that their core consumer is very price-sensitive at this time in looking for value wherever they can find. The core consumers at Dollar General — making up 60% of its customer base — come from households that earn less than $35,000 annually.

“Inflation has continued to negatively impact these households, with more than 60% claiming they have had to sacrifice on purchasing basic necessities due to the higher cost of those items, in addition to paying more for expenses such as rent, utilities and health care. More of our customers report that they are now resorting to using credit cards for basic household needs, and approximately 30% have at least one credit card that has reached its limit,” the CEO said.

His comments are corroborated by ongoing data of US consumer carrying a record high $1.34 trillion in credit card debt through Q2 2024 while the US savings rate is currently scraping at record low levels.

No surprise that defaults on credit cards have been on the rise across the age spectrum given the data.

This week Goldman Sachs, BASF, HSBC, and ICBC Standard Bank out of London made a Platinum and Palladium price fixing lawsuit settlement of a slap on the wrist of $20 million.

The price rig lawsuit occurred from the start of 2008 through nearly the end of 2014. This latest admitted precious metals price rig was during the twice-daily platinum and palladium "fixings" with the four guilty financial institutions sharing customer data, front-running expected price moves, and placing bogus "spoof" orders which enabled banks to avoid losses on "short" positions they maintained in futures markets.

Similar price rigging data points to gold and silver prices also being consistently rigged over a similar historical timespan. This data from 2006 to 2012 shows how the intraday gold price was consistently rigged lower during the London AM & PM fixes on a consistent basis over those years as well.

The last 24 years of data throughout this 21st Century suggests similar price suppression programs are still active though not as effective as perhaps they once were.

Looking back at the Palladium market during the settled lawsuit timeline illustrates what eventually happens to artificially suppressed markets, eventually they run into physical shortages, and the spot price explodes to eventually find a much higher equilibrium or price balance. Palladium for instance ran from a $180 oz low in the 2008 GFC to a price spike high of $3,400 oz by the start of 2022.

In another piece of circumstantial evidence of a potential recession underway, it was announced this week that Goldman Sachs would be cutting 1,300 employees or 4% from their overall staff.

Stick around, on the other side of this break we will run through the week's most interesting news in the silver and gold markets. And why many fundamental reasons cited are having analysts call for higher spot silver and gold prices through the close of 2024.

The spot silver and gold markets traded down on the week.

The spot silver price sold off hard to close trading today finishing below the $29 oz bid.

The spot gold price still managed to record its highest monthly price close, still settling above $2,500 oz on the week.

The spot gold silver ratio ballooned back up to 86 on silver's relative price weakness to gold over the week.

Craig Hemke of TF Metals reminded his Twitter followers of similar gold price tape paintings at months end that were more successful than perhaps this week's version. At the end of October last year 2023, we saw gold fail to close above $2,000 oz that month only to followed by a now more than $500 oz rally and price bull market breakout since.

This despite 25 gold market analysts calling for an average gold price this year 2024, of just over $2,250 oz.

Gold has been performing well this far in the year, typically up over 20% and every fiat currency you name.

And while today's bounce in relative fiat US dollar strength may have helped deter spot prices to close the week, the coming fiat Federal Reserve rate cut cycle has analysts believing there is more upside to soon come.

Lower rates will have bullish impact on gold, analyst says.

With central banks continuing to buy record volumes of gold bullion reserves. And China is now using more fiat yuan renminbi payment settlements, phasing out the once dominant fiat US dollar payment settlement over time.

The trend of de-dollarization with direct trade payment settlements and bullion over bonds on central bank balance sheets continues onward.

Turning to the silver market, this week UBS reiterated a call for silver spot prices to climb to $36 to $38 oz later this year citing further fiat US dollar weakness, the coming rate cutting cycle, growing industrial demand lending to further market supply deficits, and China's continued robust silver demand.

With recent import tax cuts in the Indian market chopped down from spot +15% to now only 6%, we are already seeing increases in gold and silver import demand in that market.

India is on pace regardless of record high gold prices locally to see another year of 1,000 metric tonnes of gold imports. With the potential for 2024 Indian silver import numbers to grow based on increasing solar, jewelry, and investment demands locally to near 7,000 metric tons.

And it is not just India's silver laced solar demand that is forecasted to grow in the coming years.

Bloomberg NEF reminded the world this week that demand for silver laced cells is not only rising but it is forecasted to continue into the middle of next decade, the 2030s. 

So yea, while silver's gains thus far in 2024 have been relatively strong, spot price averaging up over +20% on the year in virtually fiat currency you can name. Already surpassing almost all of the 25 silver market analyst price predictions thus far. 

The potential for further silver spot price climbing to close this year into next are fundamentally lining up in myriad ways mentioned. 

Buy on the price dips and position for the long haul.

That will be all for our weekly SD Bullion Market Update. 

And as always to you out there, take great care of yourselves and those you love.