Ted Butler: A Fighter for Fair Precious Metals Prices
- Ted Butler was a long-time commodities trader who became an analyst focused on exposing manipulation in the gold and silver markets.
- He believed precious metals prices were often manipulated and dedicated his career to fighting against it.
- Butler Research provided analysis on precious metals, with a focus on silver.
- Ted Butler saw the potential for a major price correction in the rigged market.
- The Eastern and Western markets for precious metals show a significant price discrepancy.
- Silver manipulation is even more extensive than gold manipulation.
- Large derivative markets are used to suppress gold and silver prices.
- Unsecured gold and silver ETFs are used to manage physical metal supplies.
- Central banks are accumulating gold in anticipation of future price increases.
- The future holds a potential mania phase for precious metals as manipulation unravels.
The fight for fair and free market pricing in the global precious metals price discovery complex lost a dedicated advocate with the passing of Ted Butler last weekend.
Ted Butler had a long career as a commodities trader before becoming an analyst focusing on precious metals and specifically the silver market in 1996. He would emphasize that his experience in commodities led him to pay special attention to precious metals, which often trade in patterns unseen in products like crude oil, soybeans, or sugar.
Through his own diligence, Ted quickly realized that there was outright and often overt price manipulation in gold and silver, and he dedicated his life to fighting against it.
Butler Research began as a subscription-based newsletter in 2009. His bi-weekly articles on his website became essential reading during the bull market price surge of 2009 into 2011.
I was personally privileged to be the first to publicly interview Ted back when JP MPMorgan was deemed guilty for violating the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act otherwise known as RICO Act in November 2018 according to the US Department of Justice.
I will leave a show link in the notes below for that full November 2018 interview in case you missed it.
With waning health and in one of Ted's final online subscription posts in the public domain earlier this year 2024, he left perhaps one of his most important suggestions looking out into the coming future for silver valuations.
Market riggings eventually fail and most importantly do so with price and valuation blowbacks in the opposite directions often later called bull markets by those masses of market commentators ignorant of why such price escalations occurred in the first place.
In late 1974, even though US Treasury agents conspired with then London gold dealers to use the coming COMEX gold futures contract market out-sizing to rig precious metals prices lower, as gold was to be re-legalized beginning in 1975.
The eventual blowback within about five years that followed, were silver spot prices in fiat US dollar terms more than 12 folding trough to peak, and gold more than 8 folding from trough to Jan 1980 price peaks.
A look around ongoing eastern vs western silver and gold price discovery markets and data today in the 21st Century, the situation is way crazier and levered for an eventual manias for the history books to come.
The ongoing shadow Eastern aggregated silver price outside New York COMEX trading hours has ballooned to now nearly $400 oz. Whereas within the NY COMXE trading hours beginning in 1970 at $1.92 and 1/2 cent per ounce have dwindled down to a mere 14¢ oz over nearly 54 years of consecutive price trading data.
You can really see this data expressed on a non-log chart showing ongoing silver spot prices over the last 54 yrs versus intra-silver COMEX futures trading hours.
An ongoing global price for the ages, no commodity nor precious metal has ever been rigged to hard nor for as long as silver ongoing.
Silver is not the only market requiring constant price rigging in a full fiat currency record debt laden world gone crazy.
In derivative gold market trading a daily basis on average now requires something like $200 billion notional to keep spot gold prices in relative polite containment, at least for now.
Unsecured gold and silver ETF piles are used as the slush funds to occasionally and persistently withdraw redeemable bullion by custodians and APs over the last few years since Covid 2020. This withdrawn bullion from said comparatively tiny ETF funds is often used for profitable arbitrages and in order to TAMP down bullion demand where it has been spiking mostly in the eastern world, specifically China and India the last few years ongoing.
In full fiat currency era trading gold as a hypothetical, focus in on the left side London related Gold east vs west price data chart. Just simply citing the ongoing data, if gold never traded between London AM & PM price fixings and intra-market hours, gold would be $34,360 oz in fiat USD based on ongoing outside London market price data from 1970 to 2024.
With the chart on the right hand side, COMEX Gold futures began trading in 1975 beginning gold priced at $175 oz, and have to date nearly 50 years of price inflation later, have only traded to now $259 oz intra-NY COMEX hrs. That is smoking gun price containment with ongoing daily price discovery data. We live in a world of fake price signals, at least for now.
Congratulations on rigging some of the most key precious commodity price discovery markets in silver and gold to both the seemingly lawless City of London and COMEX futures markets.
While I would argue that doing so has helped cost our collective cultures the whipping out of a large swath of our dwindling middle classes in both the USA and in the United Kingdom at large. Surely all those quarterly bankster bonuses were worth selling your eternal souls over.
On the other side of this break we will focus on some underlying fundamental reasons why this ongoing western derivative price containment of silver and gold markets are respectively destined to fail fabulously.
Ted Butler and others will enjoy a lasting legacy for all of us who hold and stack physical precious metals as a sound money hedge against the endless debasement of fiat currency worldwide.
To take up the battle against the derivative price rigging commercial banking system with the same tenacity as Ted did is our charge, and now we will continue the battle onward to the eventual mania phase that vindicates his like's efforts.
Thank you and RIP Ted Butler.
The spot silver and gold prices rallied late into the week only to be cut down in today's final day of trading for a flat week overall.
The spot silver price finished near $29.50 oz bid and the spot gold price closed just over $2,320 oz bid.
The spot gold silver ratio closed again at 78.
This weekend at SD Bullion be sure to come and buy this 1 oz 2024 American Silver Eagle Coin at spot deal. Getting a brand new Silver Eagle below $30 oz is going to prove a great long term value.
In just the first 2 months of 2024, India’s silver imports surged to a record 2,932 tonnes, much of which is now funneling through the UAE, although still some via London's dwindling piles. At the current rate, estimates on the LBMA website this week that Indian imports could easily surpass – as a conservative estimate - some 7,000 tonnes this year. Or just over 225 million oz or 22.5% of annual fresh global silver supplies going to India alone.
The local silver price in fiat rupee has broken out, so those who imported record volumes of silver in India this year are sitting on solid value gains, and surely come this fall import figures into India will rise based on silver's price performance breakout ongoing.
Premiums for silver in China continue to stay elevated as high as $4 oz over western spot prices indicating continued tightness and ongoing demand in China for silver often going into solar panels and other industrial inputs like their world leading car manufacturing base by volume.
Central banks continue publicly stating they plan on buying more gold bullion.
Not a surprise as central banks are forecasted to again buy over 1,000 metric tons of gold bullion this year 2024 after having done so in 2022 and 2023 despite nominal record price highs ongoing.
As there are now over 90 nations preparing various iterations of CBDC systems, their front running the world by buying about 1/4th of annual gold supplies as the fastest growing allocations in their sovereign reserves.
Central bank gold reserve surveys with 70 participating organizations illustrate that they almost all now understand that their collective sovereign gold reserve piles will keep growing year after year. That has been the case since the 2008 GFC and in record size for 3 years running once this years forecast comes to fruition.
The main reasons for owning gold bullion long term are mostly cited. Gold being a proven long-term store of value, its performance during times of crisis, gold being an effective portfolio diversifier, having no default risk, and its being a highly liquid asset.
Basically all hard lessons high net worth western investors are sitting ducks to have to relearn the hardest most expensive ways to come. As globally central banks are and have been front running their eventual future bullion buying.
Most western investment advisors are gold illiterate and have their clients with no allocations to precious metals still.
Never mind the fact that 1970 to 2024 back-tested data suggests a 20% liquid net worth allocation to gold bullion vs stocks and bond holdings (both of which are set up for major secular bear markets for years, even decades upcoming).
Globally central banks are likely nearing the 20-25% gold allocation if for instance China was honest with how much it actually owns in reserves.
Just based on the last 3 years of buying volumes, it is obvious central banks are scrambling to get as much gold as they can now, not later.
And then there is still near half its nominal price high silver awaiting outperforming gold for stretches of years in the future.
Next to no high net worth nor institutions are in gold, and much less tiny silver.
So the system is set for a major bullion mania phase surprise.
As fiat currency regimes further go CBDC and secular price inflation rages onward globally everywhere.
It will only be a handful of years from now when the history books write names like Ted Butler into them, and this building bullion bull market era mostly benefits those who got prudently positioned before ongoing spot price riggings unraveled into mania phases galore globally.
That will be all for our weekly SD Bullion Market Update.
And as always to you out there, take great care of yourselves and those you love.
